Greg Cote's Week 8 NFL picks

Eureka! Do people still shout that word as an exclamation of triumph? Well, I’m bringin’ it back, Jack, after our best all-round week in what’s been a challenging season for picks thus far. I’ll take twin double digits every time, and so 11-4 straight-up is good and 10-5 vs. the betting line is better. Our bounty included Indy’s outright upset win at the Chargers and a pair of ‘dogs-with-points on covers by the Giants and Cardinals. Now lets grow the mo’ and keep it going! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was @Chargers (4-3, -3 1/2) over Vikings (3-3), 24-20.]

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— Week 7: 11-4, .733 overall; 10-5, .667 against the spread.

— Season: 66-41, .617 overall; 52-55, .486 against the spread.

— Final 2024: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 against the spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 8 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

PACKERS (4-1-1) at STEELERS (4-2)

Line: GB by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: PIT, 23-21.

TV: 8:20 p.m., NBC.

Upset! (“Aawwk.”) Host Pittsburgh will play Sunday night’s prime-time game in its 1933 striped yellow throwback uniforms. Wait, wasn’t that Aaron Rodgers’ rookie season. Despite looking silly, I see Steelers winning anyway. Why’s it our GOTW? Two quality, playoff-headed teams and two very motivated QBs. Big revenge game for Rodgers. He hasn’t played for Green Bay since 2022, but this is his first time playing against the Pack. But it’s also a special game emotionally for Jordan Love, who will be out to verify the Packers were right to untether Rodgers. Why the upset? Pitt has rest/prep edge after playing last Thursday, Gee Bees have lost last six trips to it’s-still-Heinz Field-to-me, and Mike Tomlin as a home dog following a loss is too scrumptious to pass up.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

COWBOYS (3-3-1) at BRONCOS (5-2)

Line: DEN 3 1/2.

Cote’s pick: DAL, 30-24.

TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS.

“AAAWWWK!” raps the Upset Bird. “Cowbaawwk!” Denver’s four straight wins have come against only one quality foe, and it took an epic Giants collapse to gift Broncos a lucky W last week. Based on that recent form I see Denver due a stumble. This is a duel of Dallas’ big offense vs. Denver’s stingy D, and I’m saddling up Dak Prescott & Co. Give me the unstoppable force here over the immovable object (even though, yes, that itself is a paradox based on all logic and physics). Boys have a balanced attack that leads the league in total yards and has averaged 37 points during the past four games. Bo Nix won’t match it. “Little Bo Nix,” adds U-Bird in an apparent irrational Bo Peep reference. “Dak Prescaawwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 8:

Thursday night pick was @Chargers (4-3, -3 1/2) over Vikings (3-3), 24-20.

@Bengals (3-4, -6 1/2) over Jets (0-7), 24-17: As NFL’s last winless team, Jets have law of averages going for them. And that’s about it. Aaron Glenn seems ready to bench QB Justin Fields after two straight dismal games and even owner Woody Johnson ripping him. But sub Tyrod Taylor is less than fit with a hurt knee. Play safe with Cincy at home and rested after a Thursday game.

@Patriots (5-2, -6 1/2) over Browns (2-5), 31-10: New England has won four straight, QB Drake Maye is playing great and the AFC East title to Buffalo no longer seems a gimmie. Cleveland’s defense gives Browns a shot to stay close and cover, except that Mike Vrabel’s Pats D might be even better. Smelling a rout.

@Eagles (5-2, -7 1/2) over Giants (2-5), 27-23: NYG stunned Philly 34-17 earlier this month. See Eagles returning the favor at home, but like G-Men staying inside the bet line. Giants’ epic fourth-quarter meltdown in 33-32 loss in Denver last week doesn’t erase the boost from QB Jaxson Dart or how competitive Biggies have been.

Bills (4-2, -7 1/2) over @Panthers (4-3), 24-20: Wouldn’t have thought so before the season, but this is an intriguing matchup. Buffs have dropped two straight; Cats have won three in a row. And that Rico Dowdle-led ground game faces a Bills D allowing 5.8 yards per opponent carry. Trust Buffalo to get things right off a bye — especially with Carolina QB Bryce Young out — but home dogs keep it close.

@Ravens (1-5, -6 1/2) over Bears (4-2), 27-17: QB Lamar Jackson (hamstring) practiced this week for first time in a month. Whether he will start Sunday still was murky as of Thursday, but the expectation he will off a bye week is a big reason for the point spread — and for my pick. I’m counting on his return, and the major that would bring to the team and crowd. I might lean Ravens anyway, but the hope Jackson’s back is why I have ‘em covering.

@Falcons (3-3, -7 1/2) over Dolphins (1-6), 24-20: Miami followed its season-opening dumpster-fire loss in Indy with five straight competitive games that showed fight ... and then came last week’s 31-6 embarrassment in Cleveland. “They quit! No effort!” came the rote cries from Your Friend the Media. So, now what? Will the Dolphins prove that perception correct? Or will this mocked team rise up and show evidence of a backbone and pride? Whether Fins players are playing for embattled coach Mike McDaniel or for the man in the mirror, I’ll be looking for signs of that fight on Sunday in Atlanta. It’s a tough matchup. Before the season I marked this game as very winnable for Miami; less so now. Falcons RB Bijan Robinson is really good. Miami has the 32nd-ranked run defense. There are only 32 teams in the NFL. That’s an uh-oh right there. So how will Miami keep it close? Fins’ defense played pretty well last week despite the turnovers-led final score, and is capable of that again vs. an ATL offense bottom-five in scoring. And Tua Tagovailoa cannot possibly play as badly as he did last week ... right? A wounded, desperate, cornered animal fights hardest. Let’s see what the Dolphins do.

49ers (5-2, +1 1/2) over @Texans (2-4), 19-17: Upset! (”Aawwk.”) Rarely do I feel the team getting points should be favored but I lean that way here. San Fran finds ways to win. QB Brock Purdy may miss a fourth straight game but Mac Jones is fine in relief, Christian McCaffrey is a fantasy stud one again, and return of TE George Kittle is huge.

Buccaneers (5-2, -3 1/2) over @Saints (1-6), 34-13: Tampa is coming off a Monday loss in Detroit but has the perfect bounce-back pigeon in Saints, who join Jets, Titans and Dolphins in the NFL basement. Bucs are without WR Mike Evans (again), but Baker Mayfield has sufficient firepower left to swamp a N’awlins side weak on offense and 1-10 dating to last season.

@Colts (-13 1/2) over Titans (1-6), 38-10: The NFL has no Ohio State-Grambling. Up here a 13 1/2-point spread almost always feels too big. Including here. Feel safe if you like Titans with that truckload of points. Having said that, Jonathan Taylor will gallop for miles on this weak run D. Indy won AFC South rivals’ first meeting 41-20 in Week 3 and all that’s changed is the disparity has grown.

@Chiefs (4-3, -11 1/2) over Commanders (3-4), 27-17: Special Monday night for Sports in America, with this game and also the NBA, NHL and World Series all in action. K.C. has won two straight with a spark from return of WR Rashee Rice, and Chiefs are looking Super Bowl-good again. Comms have dropped two straight, and now have QB Jayden Daniels likely out and a big dip with Marcus Mariota in. Miniscule doubt Chiefs win, but lean desperate Washington to cover.

Note: Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of Thursday mid-afternoon.

OFF THIS WEEK

— Cardinals (2-5, next @Cowboys): Arizona brings five-game losing streak to tough road game next week, with QB Kyler Murray (foot) at risk of missing third game in a row as Jacoby Brissett fills in.

— Jaguars (4-2, next @Raiders): Jax and new coach Liam Coen had lots of buzz at 4-0, less so now after getting crushed by Rams in London last week for a second straight loss.

— Lions (5-2, next vs. Vikings): Detroit seems to have its mojo back as cream of NFC after beating Tampa last Monday, but faces major division-game challenge next week.

— Raiders (2-5, next vs. Jaguars): Loss to Kansas City has Geno Smith and Vegas’ season headed to No-Hopeville with an offense that has averaged only 8.7 points over past three games.

— Rams (5-2, next vs. Saints): Convincing win over Jaguars in London last week was second straight W for Matthew Stafford’s Rams in a tight three-way race in the NFC West.

— Seahawks (5-2, next @Commanders): Seattle has won two straight with last Monday’s win over Houston and next flies east for a difficult roadie vs. Washington in Landover, Md.