Sam Farmer's Week 16 NFL picks

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for Week 16 of the NFL season.

All lines and over/under numbers are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Last week, Farmer posted a 9-7 (.563) record. Through the first 15 weeks of the season, he is 145-79 (.647).

Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread in Week 15 would have been 7-9 (.438). For the season, his record against the spread is 108-116 (.482).

All times are Pacific.

Rams (11-3) at Seahawks (11-3)

Thursday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Rams by 1 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Rams create problems for Sam Darnold, sacking him nine times in a playoff game last year and intercepting him four times in a tight win last month. The Rams have scored 40-plus points with 500 yards in consecutive games for the first time since 2000, but the Seahawks defense tends to give them problems. So a bit lower scoring.

Pick: Rams 26, Seahawks 23

Eagles (9-5) at Commanders (4-10)

Saturday, 2 p.m.

Line: Eagles by 6 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

Washington is wildly inconsistent and sometimes disappears when facing teams it should beat. Philadelphia is coming off a get-right pounding of the Raiders. These division games are often closer than they might otherwise be, but the Eagles have enough to pull this one out on the road.

Pick: Eagles 28, Commanders 21

Packers (9-4-1) at Bears (10-4)

Saturday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Packers by 1 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

In the last seven weeks, the only loss Chicago had was by a touchdown to the Packers. Hard to sweep a division rival, Caleb Williams is super elusive, and the Packers have lost Micah Parsons. The stage is set for the surging Bears to even the score on their home field in cold weather that's familiar to both teams.

Pick: Bears 23, Packers 19

Chargers (10-4) at Cowboys (6-7-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Cowboys by 2 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

The Chargers still have designs on overtaking Denver and winning the division. They have beaten last season's Super Bowl teams in consecutive weeks. The defense is rolling and should present problems for a Cowboys team that looks like it's packing it in. The Chargers win another big one on the road.

Pick: Chargers 30, Cowboys 26

Buccaneers (7-7) at Panthers (7-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Buccaneers by 3. O/U: 45 1/2.

The Panthers have alternated wins and losses for the past eight weeks, and if the pattern holds this should be a win. Tampa Bay is getting healthier but has lost five of six, including a meltdown against Atlanta. The Panthers are no joke and should be able to hang on.

Pick: Panthers 31, Buccaneers 27

Vikings (6-8) at Giants (2-12)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Vikings by 2 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

Minnesota has won two in a row and is gaining some confidence. The Giants haven't won a game since Week 6, although they have been close at times. Still, the Giants' defense can create problems, especially for a rookie quarterback, so this should be fairly tight.

Pick: Giants 24, Vikings 20

Bills (10-4) at Browns (3-11)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bills by 10 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

After an amazing comeback against a really strong New England team last Sunday, the Bills are emboldened and Josh Allen is on an MVP pace. Cleveland relies on its stout defense, but that unit didn't show up in Week 15 against Chicago, surrendering 31 points. Buffalo, which is 7-2 outside the division, wins this going away.

Pick: Bills 27, Browns 16

Chiefs (6-8) at Titans (2-12)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Chiefs by 3 1/2. O/U: 37 1/2.

Kansas City is playing for pride and doesn't have Patrick Mahomes, although Gardner Minshew is better than most backups. The Titans can be explosive at times, but I like Steve Spagnuolo drawing up schemes against a rookie quarterback, so give the visitors the edge.

Pick: Chiefs 25, Titans 20

Bengals (4-10) at Dolphins (6-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bengals by 4 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

Miami showed Monday night it's not a cold-weather team. With Tua Tagovailoa benched and Quinn Ewers starting, you have to give the edge to Joe Burrow, even after the Bengals were blanked by Baltimore.

Pick: Bengals 29, Dolphins 24

Jets (3-11) at Saints (4-10)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Saints by 4 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

The Saints continue to play hard despite limited talent, which says a lot this late in the season. The Jets, meanwhile, keep finding ways to implode, and effort matters in games like this. The Jets have been on the wrong end of lopsided games in four of the past five weeks.

Pick: Saints 22, Jets 18

Jaguars (10-4) at Broncos (12-2)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Broncos by 3. O/U: 46 1/2.

This could be the game of the week — well, after Rams-Seahawks — and features two elite defenses and two solid quarterbacks. Trevor Lawrence keeps the Jaguars in this one, but Bo Nix and the Broncos pull away down the stretch to maintain their lead in the AFC West.

Pick: Broncos 26, Jaguars 22

Falcons (5-9) at Cardinals (3-11)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Falcons by 2 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

In four of their last six games, all losses, the Cardinals have given up at least 40 points. The Falcons aren't going to do that, but they're ostensibly fighting for the job of their coach. Still, this feels like Arizona could break through at home and win one for the first time since Week 9.

Pick: Cardinals 27, Falcons 23

Steelers (8-6) at Lions (8-6)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Lions by 6 1/2. O/U: 51 1/2.

I've underestimated the Steelers before, and they just cobbled together an impressive victory over Miami, but it's hard not to like the Lions here. They're at home and have lots of ways to score. Big game for Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Pick: Lions 31, Steelers 24

Raiders (2-12) at Texans (9-5)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Texans by 14 1/2. O/U: 37 1/2.

It's really hard to know from week to week what an NFL team is going to give you. But the Raiders are maddeningly consistent in their poor performances. Houston's defense might be the best in the league, so it won't be easy for Las Vegas to move the ball, let alone score.

Pick: Texans 21, Raiders 6

Patriots (11-3) at Ravens (7-7)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Ravens by 2 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

Baltimore gets a bad matchup at the wrong time. Before they shut out the Bengals, the Ravens had lost two in a row. New England should bounce back after losing down the stretch to Buffalo. Drake Maye should be able to inch away in this one, although it will be close.

Pick: Patriots 24, Ravens 21

49ers (10-4) at Colts (8-6)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 6 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

Philip Rivers did a remarkable job and nearly pulled off a huge upset at Seattle. Now, he'll have the benefit of playing indoors and backed by a friendly crowd. But San Francisco is rolling and beating the 49ers would be quite a feat.

Pick: 49ers 28, Colts 20