SACRAMENTO, Calif. — U.S. Rep. Doris Matsui, D-Sacramento, has spent the past few months making moves that suggest that she sees Sacramento Councilwoman Mai Vang as a serious threat.

With Election Day looming, political strategists say Matsui’s worries are warranted: She faces a real possibility of losing a congressional seat her family has held for nearly 50 years.

“She definitely is concerned with the race,” said Republican political consultant Matt Rexroad. “There’s no doubt about it.”

Rexroad was one of six political experts and consultants interviewed this week who said they expect the 7th Congressional District race to be extremely close, with a winner potentially not emerging until weeks after Election Day. Their assessments point to a tighter race than many initially expected, including perhaps Matsui who has spent millions of her personal wealth on the campaign in recent months.

“When you’re dealing with a very angry electorate that wants change, trying to convince somebody to stick with an incumbent is a difficult challenge, and I don’t know if they understood the seriousness of what was happening around the country,” said Democratic political strategist Steve Maviglio, who has publicly backed Matsui in the race.

The contest, like in other parts of the state and country, is a bitter generational fight between Democrats.

Matsui, 82, has held the seat since 2005 when she won it in a special election following the death of her then-husband Robert Matsui who was first elected to Congress in 1979. Matsui, a pillar of the Democratic establishment, has touted her experience in the House and record of delivering federal funding to the region.

“This type of success is not an entitlement that comes with the office, it is a product of knowledge, experience, effectiveness and trust that is built up over years,” said Roger Salazar, a Matsui campaign spokesperson, in a written statement Thursday.

Vang, 41, is a progressive member of the Sacramento City Council. She has centered her campaign on generational change, progressive policies and a focus on working-class families. Vang, who has vowed not to accept corporate donations, has relied on a grassroots approach with door-to-door canvassing and events to build her support.

“This November, voters will send a clear message that they’re ready for a new generation of leadership, one that fights for working families and a hopeful future for all of us, not just the privileged few,” said Nairka Treviño Müller, Vang’s campaign manager, in a written statement Thursday.

The two campaigns are banking on different strategies.

Vang has mostly appealed to younger, progressive Democrats and voters frustrated with the status quo. She has doubled down on her approach in recent weeks with appearances with Hasan Piker, a left-wing streamer and controversial political commentator.

On Wednesday, Piker and Vang gathered in Southside Park for an event hosted by the Sacramento chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America. Vang is endorsed by the local chapter and has several policies that align with the national chapter, though has rejected the socialist label.

Matsui, meanwhile, has tried to carefully navigate keeping her moderate Democrat base while appealing to Republicans who might view Vang as too liberal for the district. Proposition 50 expanded the Republican share of the 7th District electorate by adding Placerville and GOP-leaning suburbs to the northeast.

Republicans consisted of about 28% of the registered voters in the district, according to September data from the California Secretary of State’s Office. Lower GOP turnout would benefit Vang, said Christian Grose, a professor of political science and public policy at the University of Southern California.

“Matsui, her edge is basically some Republicans putting her over the top with mainstream Democratic voters. And Vang is trying to get as many Democrats as possible,” Grose said.

Political experts remained divided over which strategy will be more successful, though noted Vang has made significant ground since she first announced running last year. In past reelections, Matsui has largely cruised to victories.

The Matsui campaign was likely surprised to see Vang garner the top spot in the June primary election, said Rob Stutzman, a GOP political consultant who is running an independent political action committee for Republican voter outreach in support of Matsui. Vang earned 31% of the vote and Matsui received 29%.

“A lot of these long-term incumbents that haven’t had to have tough races just aren’t in fighting shape,” Stutzman said.

Maviglio compared Vang’s “aggressive ground game” to Flo Cofer, a current Sacramento County Board of Supervisor candidate. Cofer, who shares similar progressive views and is friends with Vang, narrowly lost the Sacramento mayoral race to Kevin McCarty in 2024 when she was a political newcomer.

“She’s for real,” said Maviglio of Vang. “She’s very aggressive and tenacious and she’s got all this support of people who don’t like Matsui.”

In response to Vang’s traction, Matsui has made campaign team changes, released more advertisements and contributed nearly $7 million in self-funding — a move she had never taken in previous reelection campaigns. That is among the top 20 in self-funding for a candidate in California history.

Much of that money has been used for TV advertisements and mailers portraying Vang as an extremist, highlighting her association with Piker and her refusal to say the Pledge of Allegiance. Another particularly contentious ad released last month featured two local politicians calling on Vang to be fired.

“An incumbent who has been in office for a long time spending that much money of her own or otherwise is a sign that it’s a very tough race for her,” Grose said.

Both campaigns remain publicly confident, though neither has publicized any internal polling. An August poll, sponsored by groups endorsing Vang, found Vang leading Matsui 32% to 28%, with 40% of respondents saying they would skip the race or did not know whom they would support.

The Vang campaign refused to comment when asked if it had conducted polling or was willing to share the results.

Salazar acknowledged polling had been conducted for strategic purposes, but declined to share it.

“You sing when you’re winning,” said Andrew Acosta, a Democratic political consultant who worked for the Matsui campaign in the primary election. “They’re probably not releasing stuff because it’s very competitive.”

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