NY Rep. Mike Lawler trails Democrat Cait Conley by 2% in new poll

Dave Goldiner, New York Daily News on Oct 1, 2026

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Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., trails Democrat Cait Conley by 2% in new poll of his Westchester County-based swing district race that is one of the marquee matchups in the upcoming midterm congressional elections.

The two-term incumbent garnered the support of 46% of voters surveyed while Conley got 48% in the WPIX-11/Emerson College poll of about 400 voters released on Thursday.

A small but significant 7% share of those surveyed were undecided in the poll, which has a margin of error of 4.9%.

“Conley has a slight lead, she’s coming out pretty strong,” said Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson College polling.

Kimball noted that Conley has a significant enthusiasm edge over Lawler, a trend that reflects nationwide Democratic energy to turn out in large numbers to register opposition to President Trump’s right-wing agenda.

“Democrats are very excited they’re coming out for Conley,” Kimball said. “This excitement question is really important to Lawler because he’s going to have to find a way to get them to come out and vote.”

The survey also showed a significant shift in the number of Democrats who plan to split their ticket by voting for Lawler, who portrays himself as a moderate Republican who tries to cross the aisle when possible and occasionally breaks with Trump.

Lawler won about 20% of Democrats in his winning 2024 reelection contest, but the poll showed just 12% of Democrats plan to back him this time. On the flip side, 10% of Republicans said they will vote for Conley, a 6% increase from the 2024 number who supported the Democratic candidate ex-Rep. Mondaire Jones.

Lawler and Conley, a military veteran, face off in a key debate on Oct. 15, which could help swing the race one way or the other.

The fight for NY-17 has long been seen as a national bellwether because it’s one of only three districts in the country that elected a Republican while also backing Kamala Harris over Trump in 2024.

Republicans hold a narrow five-seat edge in the House but Democrats are widely seen as favorites to flip the handful of districts they need to win control.

Lawler has a reputation as a formidable campaigner, so pundits on both sides of the aisle warn against counting him out, even given the grim political environment for the GOP.

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