After years in GOP hands, Democrats see a shot at Tim Walz's old House seat

MINNEAPOLIS — A year ago, Jake Johnson, a math teacher from Rochester who had never run for elected office, entered the race to take on Republican U.S. Rep. Brad Finstad without much fanfare.

He chose the Pizza Ranch in Fairmont, Minnesota, a solidly Republican area in Martin County, for his launch. Karen McConnell, the head of the Martin County Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, recalls that the event drew about 50 people.

At the time, McConnell admits, she was skeptical about Johnson’s chances. Democrats lost southern Minnesota‘s 1st Congressional District in 2018 after former Rep. Tim Walz left to run for governor, and they haven’t been anywhere close to getting it back since.

But in the year since Johnson’s launch, the momentum she’s seen around his candidacy makes McConnell now think Democrats have a shot at flipping the seat. “If we could get him more votes in every small rural district, that’s what’s needed,” McConnell said.

Democrats in the 1st District say they feel energized to oppose President Donald Trump’s second term and oust Finstad, who they argue is not accessible and is a rubber stamp on the president‘s agenda. Nationally, Democrats are feeling the wind at their backs, citing recent wins in special elections across the country, including in districts in Florida and Texas previously held by Republicans that Trump easily won in 2024. Trump’s approval rating has dropped further in recent weeks.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently put the 1st District as one of the top congressional seats it’s looking to flip this year, and Johnson has been neck-and-neck with Finstad in fundraising.

But Finstad’s increased margins over the last two election cycles and Trump’s popularity in the district in recent years has Republicans still feeling confident that they can hold the seat.

“When people try to build a narrative that Brad is suddenly vulnerable because a Democrat raised money or because Washington Democrats want to target the seat, I think they are confusing ambition with actual momentum,” said 1st District Republican Chair Lukas Severson.

The only Democrat in the race, Johnson does not have a competitive primary and has more than a year to get his name out to voters. Democrats in the district think it puts him in a more favorable position than past cycles.

When it comes to messaging, Johnson makes sure to keep his focus on the congressman rather than Trump. He is running on the idea that life in the 1st District is getting less affordable.

“This idea that life is getting harder in southern Minnesota and we don’t have a representative who will listen to us, it just did not feel like a good time to sit on the sidelines and hope that somebody would do something about it,” Johnson said in an interview.

He thinks Finstad’s biggest vulnerabilities include his support for Trump’s tariffs and its impact on small businesses and farmers in a heavily agricultural district. Johnson sees Finstad’s support for Trump’s sweeping package of tax and spending cuts and its impact on rural hospitals as another vulnerability.

The political newcomer said he plans to hold in-person town halls in all 21 counties in the 1st District beginning this summer in response to Finstad’s decision not to hold in-person town halls.

“People are so fed up with having a missing congressman,” said Johnson, who vowed to hold them regularly if he’s elected to the seat.

Democrats think frustrations over Trump’s Operation Metro Surge, rising prices as a result of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and having popular Sen. Amy Klobuchar at the top of the ticket for governor could drive turnout this year.

“Whether you’re talking about Rochester and the impacts there, to Mankato, to every piece of the 1st Congressional District, we’ve been impacted by ICE, people are still talking about that,” said state DFL Rep. Luke Frederick, who represents Mankato and parts of Blue Earth County.

First District DFL Chair Lori Sellner, who’s been involved in party politics for more than two decades, including as chair when Walz flipped the seat in 2006, said she’s seen some of the highest Democratic turnout at events in recent months, including at the recent precinct caucuses in early February.

Johnson cuts a similar profile to Walz, a former schoolteacher who had never run for office when he beat Republican incumbent Rep. Gil Gutknecht in a stunning upset in 2006.

“Fifty percent or more in most of our caucuses were people who’ve never gone to a precinct caucus before, so there’s just a lot of new energy coming in, people who really seriously want to get involved,” Sellner said.

Still, in the years since Walz’s first run, Republican margins have only been growing in the district. Finstad beat his Democratic opponent by more than 17 percentage points in 2024, outperforming Trump in the district by more than 3 points. And many counties across the district have become increasingly red.

“I don’t see that there is a blue wave forming at the congressional level, or even the state legislative level in (the 1st District). I think (Finstad’s) going to remain popular,” said Gregg Peppin, a Republican strategist who’s worked on congressional campaigns in the 1st District.

Peppin says Finstad’s background as a farmer makes him relatable to farmers and rural voters and allows him to cultivate his own brand separate from Trump. That could protect him in a tough midterm election, Peppin added, especially against a “union guy” like Johnson. Johnson has the backing of the Minnesota teachers union Education Minnesota and other unions such as the Minnesota AFL-CIO.

“I don’t think the union card sells in the 1st District,” Peppin said.

Finstad did not respond to multiple requests for comment for this story.

Johnson said he wants to get out of Democratic-leaning metropolitan areas like Rochester and Mankato and focus on rural areas like Martin County and parts of the district he thinks “Democrats have forgotten in the past.” That includes cities like Luverne, Worthington and Winona.

Some Republicans representing rural parts of the 1st District are skeptical of Johnson’s strategy.

“I do not believe that a Democrat could close the gap in areas like Martin County, in areas like Faribault County,” said Republican state Rep. Bjorn Olson, who represents Martin County. “I don’t think that they’d be able to close the gap enough to even achieve a semblance of victory.”

Jeremy Munson, a former GOP state representative who came the closest to beating Finstad in a 2022 special primary election for the seat, said Republicans did not win a governing majority by only getting votes from the Make American Great Again movement.

Munson points out that the coalition that carried Trump included “America First” and Tea Party voters, bipartisan “health freedom activists” from the Make America Healthy Again movement, Department of Government Efficiency supporters and “some disgruntled anti-war Democrats fearful of forever wars in the Middle East.”

But this year, Munson has sensed disenchantment from those voters, which could impact Republican turnout.

“I have talked with voters from each of these factions, and many of them are not as energized this cycle,” Munson said in an email. “Many voters are frustrated about the campaign promises for a full release of the Epstein files, the failed DOGE initiatives, and to oppose wars in the Middle East.”

_____

(Tom Nehil of the Minnesota Star Tribune contributed to this story.)

_____