Tropical Storm Melissa is effectively parked in the central Caribbean, dumping devastating amounts of rain on Haiti and Jamaica that has already claimed at least one life and injured others. And more rain is on the way.

The National Hurricane Center doesn’t expect Melissa to pick up the pace for days. Over the weekend, the storm is expected to creep west over some of the hottest waters in the Caribbean — becoming a fountain of rain for the region as it grows stronger and broader.

By early next week, Melissa is expected to be a formidable Category 4 hurricane that brushes Jamaica and crosses Cuba as it heads northeast back into the Atlantic.

At this point, no long-range models are suggesting Melissa could be a serious threat to Florida.

As of 8 a.m. Friday, the hurricane center said Melissa had begun moving again, at only 1 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Most of the storm’s rainstorms and strong winds are clustered to the right side.

Haiti’s southeast peninsula and all of Jamaica remain under a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch. Haiti’s government reported Wednesday that one man died and five others were injured in Melissa-related winds and floods.

Over the weekend, Melissa is not expected to move much as it crawls west, drenching the central Caribbean with rain. It’s currently caught in a pocket of wind shear that’s helping to balance out the storm-fueling effects of the warmer-than-average waters its crossing.

But that shear is expected to lighten up in the next few days, giving Melissa the chance to gain the juice needed to hit Category 4 by Sunday evening.

“There is fairly strong agreement among the intensity models that a period of rapid intensification could begin in about 24 hours, and the NHC forecast shows Melissa becoming a hurricane in 36 hours,” forecasters wrote in the 5 a.m. update Friday.

The hurricane center’s forecast track only stretches until Wednesday, when it shows a Category 4 Melissa making landfall on Cuba’s southeast coast. But long-range storm models, also known as spaghetti models, have continued to suggest that Melissa will head northeast after crossing Cuba and bypass Florida.

Exactly when Melissa makes its turn to the northeast is still unclear, and it matters a great deal to Jamaica and Haiti.

An earlier turn could mean a slightly weaker storm, one that is slowed by a landfall on Jamaica before it gets to Cuba and beyond. A later turn gives Melissa more time over some of the hottest waters in the Caribbean, which haven’t seen a storm all season.

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