For the second time in the past two weeks, the U.S. Drought Monitor, a prominent national report, has classified 100% of California as being drought-free. That’s a rating that hasn’t occurred in 25 years.

Great news, right?

It’s not quite that simple. To be exact, the last time the report had California at 100% drought-free was the week of Dec. 26, 2000, when Tom Hanks’ “Castaway” was packing movie theaters, Bill Clinton was president and 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was celebrating his first birthday.

But the drought-free designation — which has made breathless headlines all week — could be misleading if not viewed in the right context, experts said.

Most importantly, it doesn’t mean this week is the wettest period California has experienced in the past quarter century. Far from it. There have been lots of wetter periods in recent history.

In 2017, soaking storms led to flooding that caused $100 million in damage in downtown San Jose and the evacuation of nearly 200,000 people when the spillway at Oroville Dam, the nation’s tallest dam, in Butte County, partially collapsed under torrents of water.

On Thursday, the statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack was 80% of its historical average. This week in 2023, it was 247% of normal. There was so much snow that winter that ski resorts around Lake Tahoe had to close for days at a time to dig out chair lifts and clear roads.

And there have been multiple times — in 2005, 2011 and even 2024 — when the state So why does California have a 100% “drought-free” rating now?

The state has had three wet winters in a row. Reservoirs are at or above historical averages. And precipitation this winter has been spread out unusually broadly to all 58 California counties, said Brian Fuchs, a climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, Nebraska.

Fuchs wrote this week’s and last week’s Drought Monitor report.

“Geographically, California is a big state,” Fuchs said. “Most of the state can be doing great, but there’s usually a corner where drought or dryness is still showing up. Right now, the precipitation has been more evenly dispersed and that’s what has been unique.”

The weekly Drought Monitor report comes out every Thursday morning. It is produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

The most high-profile snapshot of drought conditions across the United States, it issues maps that contain six colors: white for no drought, yellow for abnormally dry, light orange for moderate drought, dark orange for severe drought, red for extreme drought and brown for exceptional drought.

Fuchs said that he and other scientists who write the report enter dozens of data points for hundreds of locations into a computer program. They include each week’s rainfall and snow amounts, soil moisture levels, reservoir storage, streamflow rates and other factors.

A GIS mapping program ranks each measurement in the colors of the map scale, he said, with readings that are more than 30% of the historical average getting white, 20% to 30% getting yellow, 10% to 20% getting light orange, 5% to 10% getting dark orange, 2% to 5% getting red and below 2% getting brown. The researchers overlay all the data, and then send it to 400 other scientists, water managers, and other experts around the country who critique it and comment on it internally before the map is published.

“The group comes back with suggestions and ideas,” said Fuchs, who also works as a geoscientist at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. “It’s instantly peer reviewed.”

Some experts say the map isn’t always the best measure of water conditions in California.

Unlike in the Midwest or East Coast, where rain is more plentiful, California relies on a huge system of reservoirs, canals and pumps to move water around the state, said Jay Lund, a professor at UC Davis’ Center for Watershed Sciences. So, reservoir and groundwater levels are more important in California than some other factors.

“The pros of the Drought Monitor are that it gets very widespread distribution. It helps people think about droughts,” Lund said. “The cons are that it can be a little simplistic, particularly in California, which has such complex water systems and is a huge state.”

Jan Null, a meteorologist with Golden Gate Weather Services, agreed.

“We need a more refined product to support the uniqueness of California’s Mediterranean climate and our water system,” Null said. “Water that flows up near Shasta is used hundreds of miles away in Los Angeles. I don’t think the Drought Monitor is the best tool. But I don’t have a better one.”

While some parts of California have seen near-record rainfall this winter, like Santa Barbara, which was at 296% of its historical average from Oct. 1 through Thursday, other places have seen more modest totals, like far Northern California, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources.

Crescent City, near the Oregon border, was at 91% of its historical rainfall average Thursday. The Bay Area is slightly above average, including San Francisco at 112%, Santa Rosa at 113% and Oakland at 121%. San Jose is at 141%.

California has had a good winter so far, Swain said. Three years of wet winters in a row is rare. But the public shouldn’t read too much into the recent Drought Monitor reports saying the state is 100% drought-free, he said.

“I don’t think it’s nearly as big a deal as it has made out to be in some of the headlines,” Swain said.

It could change soon, he noted. Winter is only half over. Although there is little chance of summer water restrictions, the rain has shut off for now. There has been no significant rain in the Bay Area for the past 10 days, and none is forecast for the next 10 days.

“Right now, we have the fewest places in California that are dry in 25 years,” Lund said. “But this isn’t the wettest week in 25 years. Either way, we can never afford in California to take our eyes off droughts or floods. We always have to worry about both of them.”

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