Hurricane center ups odds again Gulf system will develop into tropical depression or storm

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Oct 6, 2026

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ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday continued to increase the odds a system that formed in the Gulf could develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 2 a.m. tropical outlook, the surface trough of low pressure, now dubbed Invest 92L and producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, had moved farther into the southwestern Gulf after having formed along the coast of Mexico on Monday.

“Although environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for development, a tropical depression is likely to form within the nextcouple of days,” forecasters said. “The system is expected to drift east-northeastward through the middle portion of the week before turning northward.”

The NHC said it was too early to tell specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests should monitor the system’s progress. The National Weather Service in Melbourne stated the latest guidance keeps the system west of Florida.

But the NHC warned that regardless of development, heavy rainfall and associated flooding impacts could hit portions of the Gulf Coast, southeastern U.S. and Florida later this week and into the weekend.

The NHC gave it an 80% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.

If it were to spin up into a named system, it could become Tropical Storm Isaias.

The hurricane season has seen the formation of tropical storms Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo and Hanna.

None has developed into a hurricane in the Atlantic this year, though, by Oct. 1 — a first since satellite tracking began in 1966.

Hurricane season began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, but the height of hurricane season runs from mid-August through mid-October.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in August had updated its seasonal forecast to expect between seven and 13 named storms this year. Of those, two to six would become hurricanes. It also predicted that there might not be any major hurricanes this year, or at most two.

Already, 2026 was forecast to have lower-than-average storm generation, and that has been reduced even further with the latest forecasts from the NOAA and other weather groups.

An average year would see 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, with three of those growing to Category 3 strength or higher.

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