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Brent steadies on shifting Middle East supply outlook

Kanoko Matsuyama and Mia Gindis, Bloomberg News on

Published in News & Features

Brent held steady amid shifting concerns about Middle East supply, with Saudi Arabia pausing some sales to Europe though traders and analysts say buffers still hold for now.

The global benchmark hovered near $105 a barrel after losing more than 3% over the two previous sessions. Saudi Aramco told at least two oil refining customers in Europe that they will be allocated no crude oil next month, people familiar said, offsetting some relief after the kingdom moved to restore its damaged East-West pipeline following drone attacks stemming from Iran war.

West Texas Intermediate, which is nearing expiration and has traded out of step with Brent in recent days, rose to around $103 a barrel.

Saudi Aramco is working to partially restart the pipeline within days and ramp up to full capacity within six weeks, Bloomberg reported this week. The conduit, which has served as an essential workaround to the Strait of Hormuz during the war, has a capacity of up to 7 million barrels a day. The kingdom is also ramping up sales of crude from outside Hormuz.

“It feels like the physical panic is over for now in crude with the partial resumption of the Yanbu route out of Saudi Arabia and also the Saudis finding a way to sell more from the Strait of Hormuz,” said Scott Shelton an energy specialist at TP ICAP Group Plc.

Crude is finishing up a volatile week, initially jumping following the drone strikes on the pipeline before retreating. Still, Brent, has gained about 70% this year as the conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine drag on. That’s fanning inflationary concerns, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicting more gains for gasoline.

Still, concerns about physical supply linger. Differentials of crude from North Sea to the Mediterranean are surging to records as the shutdown of the pipeline roils European physical markets.

 

On the diplomatic front, a meeting with Persian Gulf nations is planned for next week on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, while the U.S. leader is due to hold a summit with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping that may touch upon the war. Elsewhere, U.S. President Donald Trump told Axios he was approaching a “big decision” on whether to re-escalate attacks on Tehran.

South Korea, a top buyer of Middle East crude, ruled out sending troops to the Strait of Hormuz to join the U.S. war against Iran despite pressure from Trump.

Sentiment is still far from bearish, with traders awaiting evidence of restored supply, said Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insights at Phillip Nova Pte Ltd. in Singapore. Oil’s recent drop appears to be a cooling of the geopolitical risk premium rather than a fundamental reversal, she said.

Risks to shipping passing through Hormuz persist amid Iranian threats to vessels using routes it regards as unapproved. U.K. Maritime Trade Operations said it received a report of a tanker being struck by an unknown projectile while transiting outbound of the strait on Wednesday.

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(With assistance from Charles Gorrivan.)


©2026 Bloomberg L.P. Visit bloomberg.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

 

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