Dangerous storms possible across Virginia; damaging winds, large hail and potentially strong tornadoes are threats

The Virginian-Pilot and Daily Press staff, The Virginian-Pilot on Mar 15, 2026

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Much of Virginia is under the “substantial risk” of severe weather on Monday.

The commonwealth could see severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and strong tornadoes, according to the National Weather Service.

The weather service’s forecast said there remains a substantial risk of severe weather Monday along and ahead of a strong cold front expected to move through the region later in the day. Forecasters say multiple rounds of storms are possible with the potential for widespread damaging winds, strong tornadoes, and large hail.

The threat level scale ranges from 1 to 5, beginning as a marginal threat, to slight, to enhanced, to moderate, to high. Much of the middle of the state — including the Williamsburg area — is under a Level 4 threat. Most of Hampton Roads is under a Level 3 threat.

The strongest storms are expected Monday as the cold front approaches and moves through the region later in the day.

In eastern Virginia, in the area designated as “Level 3” on the threat scale, the probability of a tornado is around 10-14%. For the area marked as “Level 4” — including the Williamsburg area — the probability could reach as high as 29%.

Temperatures will get down to just below freezing in the Hampton Roads region Tuesday night, likely causing a “hard freeze” of any rain left on the ground from Monday.

For marine vessels, small craft advisory conditions are expected beginning Sunday and continuing into early Tuesday. Gale conditions are likely ahead of and immediately behind the cold front Monday, with gale warnings now in effect for the coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay. Severe thunderstorms could produce wind gusts between 40 and 50 knots.

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