Halloween is shaping up to be a test for the chocolate industry, as high cocoa costs threaten to accelerate a consumer shift toward cheaper and trendier sweets such as sour gummies.

For candy makers, Halloween remains crucial — the holiday made up nearly 18% of annual U.S. candy sales last year, second only to Christmas. But chocolate makers have been passing along costlier input prices to consumers, and that’s leaving an opening for rivals — who have already seen a shift toward non-chocolate treats — to grab more market share.

It’s the latest example of demand destruction as the chocolate industry is grappling with high prices amid a precarious supply outlook. While cocoa futures in New York have slumped about 50% from a record set in December, they’re still historically elevated. Chocolate makers are hoping nostalgia during the Halloween season can offset the broader shift away from their products.

“Chocolate is chocolate,” said David Branch, a sector manager at Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute. “We’re seeing less sales away from holidays and more sales during holidays. People are not buying it all the time, but when they want it, they want it.”

The problem is that, increasingly, they’re wanting it less often. Chocolate candy volumes dropped 6% in the 12 weeks ending Oct. 5, as the average price per pound jumped nearly 14%, according to data from consumer research firm Circana. Meanwhile, sales volumes for non-chocolate Halloween-themed candy — think Haribo sour gummy bats — rose 8.3% during the same period.

“I feel like it’s a weekly game between chocolate and non-chocolate, who’s winning that race,” said Sally Lyons Wyatt, Circana’s chief adviser for consumer goods and foodservice insights. Shoppers are still embracing chocolate despite the price increases, she said, but “it’s a jump ball almost between who’s going to get the shares right now.”

More than half of shoppers said they would prioritize gummy candies in their Halloween spending, and just shy of half said the same for hard candies, NielsenIQ researchers found.

Sugarfina, where gummies make up about 85% of its offerings, is selling out its product lines at a faster pace than last year, including a new tangerine-flavored “super sour” star that was gone by mid-October, according to Chief Executive Officer Scott LaPorta. The profitability of gummies has increased relative to chocolate as cocoa costs have risen, he added.

Haribo, best known for its gummy bears, is also seeing higher demand this year, said Hannah Curlee, the company’s seasonal brand manager. Higher chocolate prices have played a role, but gummies also provide a “seasonal creativity that chocolate can’t always match,” Curlee said.

Chocolate companies are fighting back with more promotions and seasonal offerings. They’re also taking action to keep prices down, using nuts and creams to cut back on costly cocoa ingredients.

Some of the biggest companies are stretching their broader portfolios. At Mondelez International Inc., owner of the Cadbury and Toblerone brands, gummies are the priority in the American market, said Chantal Butler, president of the company’s U.S. confectionery segment. Limited-time offerings like Halloween-themed Sour Patch Kids and Oreos “contribute significantly to the demand we see this time of year,” she added.

Still, the U.S. market in particular “is slower than we’ve seen in quite a while,” Mondelez CEO Dirk Van de Put said on an earnings call Tuesday. The company in response has launched more affordable products after its promotional strategy earlier this year “was not giving us the volume effect that we were hoping for,” he said.

Hershey Co. has new Halloween flavors and packaging in the gummy product lineup it launched last year in partnership with Shaquille O’Neal. That’s alongside ghost-shaped Twizzlers and “trickies” Jolly Rancher gummies with colors that don’t always line up with the expected flavors. Sugar-based sweet sales are stacking on top of chocolate sales, with few consumers explicitly choosing one over the other, according to a Hershey spokesperson.

Guittard Chocolate Co., a California-based chocolate company that sells largely to specialty candymakers, expects Halloween demand to be consistent with past years even as the industry works through cocoa supplies purchased earlier this year at much higher prices.

Some confectioners are coming out with new products to “take some of the pressure off” but consumers also require consistency in their favorite products — even at higher costs, said CEO Gary Guittard.

(With assistance from Kristina Peterson.)

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